Falling rupee short-term trend, India in exceptional period of stability: Top official
The official said if one takes the long-term view the rupee is not depreciating against most world currencies and that in fact it is a case of strengthening of dollar rather than weakening of rupee.
"I am not sure why everybody is concerned... For five years now we have been stable pretty much against every currency. Even against the dollar if you take a five-year view we have only depreciated relatively little " Principal Economic Adviser to Finance Ministry Sanjeev Sanyal told IANS in an interview.
"Against the pound for example we have appreciated in the last five years. We are broadly stable against Euro. The point I am making is we are not depreciating against most world currencies; what is happening is that the US dollar is strengthening " he added.
Asked if the government is comfortable with the situation he said: "It s an evolving situation... There is no such thing as equilibrium in economics."
Sanyal said had there been a domestic inflation problem the depreciation of rupee would have complicated the situation. But he said India has inflation in control "which gives us some space to allow this process to happen".
"As per the economic law of impossible trinity once you have open capital accounts you can either control the monetary policy or the exchange rate " he said adding that since India has created an explicit monetary policy the exchange rate has to be determined by the market.
"So while you can slow (down) the adjustment using the foreign exchange reserves in the medium term it will find its own level " he added.
Sanyal insisted that the current depreciation of rupee would not have any bearing on the economy.
"We have signed up for this particular model. You have to get out of the idea that there is some sort of a value that we target; we are not doing that at all. The point is it s a matter of making adjustments according to the evolving situation."
"There is no clear trend in our (rupee) depreciating and in fact if you take a longer time in history this is the only time we have not been systematically declining against world currencies.
"So rather than bemoan the situation...this has been an exceptional period of stability. On a basket basis we have appreciated...real effective exchange rate we have appreciated " Sanyal said.
The economist added the key was to maintain reasonable stability over longer periods of time and allow market adjustments where necessary in the medium term and avoid short-term unnecessary volatility.
"And we have more than adequate foreign exchange reserves to manage any sudden sharp movement if there is a disruption in the world economy " he said.
Sanyal said it is not in India s interest for rupee to also strengthen along with the US dollar when other currencies including Chinese Yuan are also depreciating.
"What is the purpose of strengthening with the US dollar if all our trading partners and competitors are depreciating?" he asked.
(Manish Gupta and Vishav can be contacted at manish.g@ians.in and vishav@ians.in)
--IANS mgu-vv/nir